The long-standing bipartisan consensus in Washington regarding Israel is facing an unprecedented challenge as both voters and lawmakers increasingly break from traditional party lines. This shift is becoming difficult for the pro-Israel establishment to contain, as evidenced by recent electoral outcomes and legislative voting patterns.
In a significant setback for the pro-Israel lobby, nearly $65 million in advertising—much of it funneled through AIPAC—failed to secure a victory for Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary this month. Her opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, successfully campaigned on a platform that explicitly labeled Israel’s military campaign in Gaza a genocide, winning over voters despite the backing Stevens received from the state’s governor and the broader party donor class.
Legislative activity in Congress reflects this evolving sentiment. In July, 103 House Democrats supported an amendment proposed by Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie to cut $3.3 billion in military aid to Israel. This marks a notable increase from two years prior, when only 37 Democrats backed a similar measure. Similarly, in April, 40 of the 47 Senate Democrats voted to block a $450 million arms package, a significant rise from 27 votes the previous July and 15 the year before that.
While these legislative efforts have not yet succeeded, the margins of defeat are narrowing. This political friction occurs against a backdrop of severe humanitarian conditions in Gaza. According to the territory’s Health Ministry, Israel has killed more than 73,000 Palestinians and wounded over 174,000 since October 2023, with widespread reports of mass displacement and starvation.
Public opinion appears to be leading this political transition. An August poll by The Economist and YouGov found that 45 percent of American voters believe Israel is committing genocide, compared to 31 percent who disagree. Gallup data shows that approval of Israel’s actions has dropped from 50 percent to 32 percent since the conflict began, while disapproval has climbed to 60 percent.
The shift is particularly pronounced among Democrats. Historical data reveals a dramatic reversal: in 2001, over half of Democratic voters sympathized with Israel, while only 16 percent sided with Palestinians. Today, those figures have essentially inverted, with 59 percent of Democrats siding with Palestinians compared to 21 percent for Israel.
Alon Liel, former director general of the Israeli foreign ministry, suggests that support is also waning among American Jews. “I think the change in the US is triggered mainly by American fatigue with the Israeli-Arab conflict and the fact that Israel is no longer the underdog,” Liel told. He added that the situation has been exacerbated by casualties in Gaza and illegal settler violence in the West Bank.
Liel further noted that the decline of AIPAC’s influence is being accelerated by the rise of counterbalancing organizations like J Street. He believes the erosion of support among American Jews provides legitimacy to this broader political shift, which he expects to persist until there is a fundamental change in Israeli policy.
Within the Republican Party, the movement is distinct but measurable. While younger Republicans are showing increased skepticism—with unfavorable views of Israel among those under 50 rising from 35 percent to 50 percent over three years—the shift is driven by a desire to avoid further US intervention in Middle Eastern conflicts. Figures such as Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Megyn Kelly have helped normalize “America First” skepticism within MAGA media circles.
The institutional power that once made unconditional support for Israel a bipartisan requirement is visibly weakening. AIPAC, which previously succeeded in defeating candidates like Cori Bush in Missouri, failed to protect Rep. Stevens this cycle, while Rep. Adriano Espaillat lost his primary to a challenger who campaigned against military aid to Israel.
Experts are increasingly characterizing the current state of affairs as a structural realignment. Yossi Shain, an Israeli international relations scholar and former Knesset member, has described Israel as a “toxic brand” in Washington. Meanwhile, former CIA officer John Kiriakou argued that Israel has lost both the American public and the military, warning that the US will not continue to fight Israel’s wars indefinitely.
Ultimately, both major US parties are arriving at critical conclusions regarding the conflict from different ideological starting points. As the institutions that once protected the bipartisan consensus struggle to maintain their influence, the political landscape in Washington appears to be undergoing a lasting transformation. The report also notes that whose support for continued military aid dropped from 55 percent to 43 percent in a single year, while their approval of Israeli conduct in Gaza has fallen to just 8 percen, the steepest collapse has come among Democrats. The report also notes that but the movement among younger Republicans is measurable all the same: unfavourable views of Israel among Republicans under 50 rose from 35 percent to 50 percent over three years, republicans have moved considerably less. The report also notes that if more unevenly, congress has been arriving at a version of the same verdict for months. The report also notes that but each failed by a narrower margin than the last, each of these measures failed. The report also notes that with entire neighbourhoods reduced to rubble, mass displacement and forced starvation conditions documented across the enclave, the scale of the destruction has been visible around the world in real time.
Source: TRT World
