United States President Donald Trump has launched what he describes as an “economic D-Day” against Tehran, threatening to impose severe financial penalties on any nation that provides an economic “lifeline” to Iran. Six months into a costly conflict, this campaign represents the latest effort by the administration to leverage American economic might to secure foreign policy goals, following a series of trade wars earlier in his second term.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, the president vowed that his initiative would be the “most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country.” He warned of “tremendous economic consequences” for entities that assist Iran in circumventing sanctions through methods such as oil smuggling, ship registries, front companies, cash transfers, exchange houses, and swap lines. “It all needs to stop NOW,” he declared.
However, experts suggest that Trump’s ability to effectively isolate Iran is constrained by the reality that his primary targets, China and Russia, operate largely outside the US-led economic framework. Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, noted that the administration is attempting to unilaterally enforce sanctions that historically require multilateral coordination, including the backing of the UN Security Council’s permanent members.
The pressure campaign has already seen regional shifts. The United Arab Emirates recently announced an indefinite trade embargo on Tehran, citing the Iranian military’s alleged launch of two ballistic missiles at its territory. Nader Habibi, a professor of Middle East economics at Brandeis University, suggested this move was likely induced by the United States, which may now look to pressure other partners, including China.
Disrupting the China-Iran trade relationship presents significant challenges. Data from analytics firm Kpler indicates that China purchased 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports in 2025. Targeting Chinese refineries is difficult, as many are independent and possess minimal reliance on the US financial system. While the US Treasury has threatened to sanction major Chinese banks that process Iranian funds, doing so could trigger a retaliatory response during a delicate diplomatic period.
Yu Jie, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, argued that these threats are unlikely to fundamentally alter the existing trade relationship. She noted that Beijing aims for a temporary truce with Washington, and while the Gulf conflict will be a topic of discussion during President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to the US, it is not expected to be the primary focus. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian has publicly stated that additional sanctions will not resolve the underlying issues and urged all parties to pursue diplomatic solutions.
Russia presents a distinct challenge, as it is already subject to extensive US sanctions. Despite being a smaller trade partner than China, Moscow and Tehran have deepened their commercial and military cooperation. In January 2025, the two nations signed a 20-year partnership treaty, which helped drive trade volume to $4.8 billion in the first 11 months of that year, according to Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev. Reports, including an NBC News citation of a European government document, indicate the two countries have exchanged military equipment, including drone components, ammunition, and TNT, via the Caspian Sea.
In response to the US campaign, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the move as a continuation of “failed policies” that would lead to “further defeat.” He wrote on X that “US economic terrorism threatens global economy and sovereignty worldwide.”
Tehran is simultaneously seeking to bypass Western financial systems by leveraging its membership in the BRICS bloc. Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati announced last week that Iran intends to join the BRICS New Development Bank (NBD) to access alternative financing. He added that Iran is pursuing bilateral and trilateral monetary cooperation with fellow BRICS members, aiming to transact in their own currencies. While the NBD has yet to comment on the membership bid, the process would require a formal accession protocol.
Despite the “suffocating” nature of the sanctions, Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran, remains defiant. “Trump is stuck in a war he can’t win and he can’t get out of,” he stated. The report also notes that china, meanwhile, has repeatedly shown it is willing to ignore US sanctions when doing so serves its own economic interests. The report also notes that “China calls on relevant parties to take responsible measures and solve the issues through diplomatic and political means,” said Lin. The report also notes that the US has tried to keep tensions with China at bay ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to Washington next month. The report also notes that during that and two other potential meetups between the leaders later this year, “prolonged conflict in the Gulf is one of the items both sides will discuss,” said Yu, “but it won’t be the most important item”. The report also notes that as a member of the BRICS organisation that also includes Russia, China, India, Brazil and other global powers, Iran has sought to use its weight there to seek new financial avenues.
Source: Al Jazeera
