Israel’s upcoming October election serves as a pivotal moment for both the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the identity of his Likud party. Once considered a mainstream pillar of Zionist politics, the party is increasingly viewed by analysts as having drifted into the far-right sphere, adopting positions that were previously relegated to the political fringe.
The historical trajectory of the party is marked by significant change. From the establishment of Israel in 1948 until 1977, the political landscape was dominated by the left. However, the rise of Likud under Menachem Begin—a former leader of the Irgun, a Zionist underground group—shifted the balance of power. Since the 1990s, Likud-led coalitions have largely defined Israeli governance, with only brief interruptions by centrist or left-wing administrations.
Under Netanyahu, who holds the record as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, the party has moved away from its roots as the National Liberal Movement. It has increasingly aligned with extremist factions, most notably Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism. These alliances have blurred the lines between traditional right-wing governance and far-right ideology.
Political scientist Dahlia Scheindlin, author of The Crooked Timber of Democracy in Israel: Promise Unfulfilled, notes that the distinction between Likud’s policies and those of its far-right partners has effectively vanished. She argues that while Netanyahu may not personally subscribe to religious fundamentalism, his political reliance on these groups has made such distinctions irrelevant. Both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have openly advocated for the annexation of occupied Palestinian territories, with Ben-Gvir frequently drawing controversy for inflammatory rhetoric regarding military actions in Gaza.
This shift has triggered internal dissent. Long-time party members have begun to defect, with some joining other right-wing groups or establishing new ones. Recent departures include senior lawmaker Yuli Edelstein, who protested the government’s push for a bill exempting ultra-Orthodox Haredi Jews from military service, and deputy Dan Illouz, who resigned after refusing to support the same legislation.
Analysts suggest that Netanyahu’s consolidation of power within the party has accelerated this transformation. He has secured the authority to personally appoint one-third of the candidates for parliamentary seats, ensuring that his loyalists dominate the ranks. According to analyst Goren, this centralization of control has prioritized Netanyahu’s personal survival and populist discourse over the party’s historical ideological platform.
The decision to formally invite the far-right into the coalition following the 2022 election is described by expert Dan Steinbock as a decisive turning point. What was once a tactical necessity for political survival has become an official governing strategy. However, this strategy faces significant electoral hurdles. Current polling indicates that Netanyahu’s hardliner bloc holds roughly 50 seats, falling well short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government.
Scheindlin observes that Likud is facing its most challenging election cycle in years, with polls suggesting the party is trailing behind the centrist Yashar party, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Despite these struggles, the party remains a central force in Israeli politics, with its influence subject to the volatility of regional developments.
The long-term consequences of this alignment remain a subject of intense debate. Some experts, such as Rudnitzky of the Moshe Dayan Center, warn that by fully embracing the far-right, Likud risks losing its broader influence over Israeli society. While the party attempts to frame itself as the representative of a traditional, stable right, the public’s identification with the radical worldview of its coalition partners is not guaranteed.
Ultimately, the party’s future remains tied to Netanyahu’s leadership. Whether Likud can maintain its status as a mainstream force or will be permanently redefined by its current alliances remains the central question of the October vote. If the current trajectory continues, analysts warn that Israel’s future political path may be increasingly grim, characterized by further polarization and the erosion of liberal democratic practices. The report also notes that ben-Gvir has also attracted controversy for statements ranging from calling on the Israeli military to kill dozens of Palestinians in Gaza each day to proposing a ditch filled with crocodiles around prisons holding Palestinian detainees. The report also notes that a Zionist underground group attacking British and Palestinian forces before Israel’s 1948 founding, and later led by Ariel Sharon, a former general and another co-founder of the party, has recently become more extremist, likud was co-founded in 1973 by Menachem Begin of the Irgun. The report also notes that then, it has also shifted towards populism and far-right,” Nimrod Goren, President of the Mitvim Institute, an Israeli think tank, tells. The report also notes that “It is now a very different party from the more liberal party it used to be in previous decades. The report also notes that it would be more accurate to say that it has undergone two significant changes in recent years,” Arik Rudnitzky, a researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies.
Source: TRT World
