In a historic move, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan have officially signed the Mecca Joint Defence Pact. This agreement builds upon existing bilateral frameworks to create a new mutual defence structure, signaling a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and South Asia. The pact aims to project a message of strength and unity, though its practical application remains a subject of intense international scrutiny.
Analysts note that the three countries have been cautious not to antagonise regional adversaries while navigating this new alignment. It remains unclear to what extent the pact will be activated in specific conflict scenarios. Harlan Ullman, chairman of the Killowen Group advisory firm, told Al Jazeera: “We haven’t seen the Mecca declaration yet. We believe it says an attack on one should be considered an attack on all — and ‘should be’ is the operative phrase because that does not mean ‘necessarily’.”
The security environment for these nations is increasingly volatile. Pakistan has been engaged in a border conflict with Afghanistan since February and exchanged fire with India in May 2025. Saudi Arabia has faced repeated attacks from Iran and its regional proxies since the outbreak of the United States-Israeli war in Gaza. Meanwhile, Turkiye continues to engage in operations against Kurdish armed groups while managing its own heightened tensions with Israel.
The Middle East has experienced significant upheaval, most notably since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli military campaign in Gaza. Decades of hostility between Iran and Israel have culminated in a regional war that shows no signs of abating. Countries across the Middle East and further afield are now trying to figure out how to deal with the chaos and prepare for the next phase of this instability.
Many of the states appear to be putting past differences behind them and deciding that pragmatism is the best path forward in the face of mutual threats. Turkiye and Saudi Arabia serve as a primary example of this shift. The 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in his country’s Istanbul consulate led to a deep rift between the two countries that lasted for years. However, by 2022, Riyadh and Ankara moved to set aside these grievances, with Saudi Arabia pursuing regional de-escalation and Turkiye focusing on economic stabilization.
The Mecca Joint Defence Pact is designed to serve as a deterrent against the various threats facing its signatories. According to Al Jazeera correspondent Osamah Bin Javaid, each nation contributes distinct strategic assets to the alliance. “Each of these countries brings unique capabilities: Pakistan’s battle-hardened military, its munitions and nuclear arsenal, the only one in a Muslim-majority nation,” Bin Javaid noted.
Turkiye, as a vital NATO member, provides world-class drone technology and sophisticated defence manufacturing capabilities. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, offers significant financial resources and regional influence. For all three states, Israel remains the primary threat to regional security, followed closely by Iran, particularly for Riyadh, which has faced direct strikes on its interests from Tehran.
The necessity for such alliances has been amplified by the perceived withdrawal of traditional security guarantors. As foreign policy in the United States grows increasingly unpredictable under President Donald Trump, nations are seeking alternative security arrangements. Experts point out that Israel appears to be the top foreign-policy priority for the US in the region, leading to concerns among other partners about their own long-term security.
“The Trump administration has said that allies have got to fend for themselves,” Ullman said. “It’s clear to me that our allies are looking elsewhere.” This sentiment is echoed across the region, where leaders are increasingly skeptical of relying solely on Washington for protection against emerging threats.
The practical effectiveness of the pact remains a major question for military analysts. “Supposing the Houthis in Yemen attack Saudi Arabia, does that bring in Turkiye? Does that bring in Pakistan? That remains to be seen,” Ullman added. The ambiguity of the commitment is intentional, allowing the signatories to maintain strategic flexibility while signaling a collective intent to defend their interests.
For many in the region, Israel has demonstrated post-2023 that it is more interested in using military force than diplomatic negotiations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has begun to speak of the dangers of an emerging “Sunni axis,” though he has not clearly defined the scope of that threat. Meanwhile, other regional players like Syria remain focused on post-war reconstruction after a 13-year conflict, further complicating the regional power balance.
Ultimately, the Mecca Joint Defence Pact represents a calculated attempt by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye to insulate themselves from the volatility of the current regional order. By pooling their military and economic strengths, they hope to create a buffer against the competing visions of Israel and Iran, ensuring their own national security in an era where traditional alliances are increasingly being tested.
But by 2022, Riyadh and Ankara were seen to put aside their past differences, with the former pursuing a region-wide deescalation strategy, and the latter looking to strengthen its economy.
Experts, however, argue his remarks could end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy that brings Sunni-majority powers together.
But past divisions, as well as differing interests, make the expansion of the alliance a less-than-foregone conclusion.
Its position on Israel’s northern border could make it hesitant to enter into a pact that might be perceived negatively by that country.
Egypt, likewise, has signalled its focus is on the economy and avoiding domestic upheaval.
In the past, it has hesitated to join a Saudi-led maritime alliance to protect shipping routes in the region, for fear of being dragged into a regional conflict.
The result of that normalisation, the US-backed Abraham Accords, presents another regional grouping, more aligned with Israel, that could be seen as a rival to the Mecca alliance nations.
The complicated nature of Middle East relations highlights the problems inherent in any narrative about the emergence of a new regional order following Friday’s pact.
The true assessment of this alliance will be when it is truly tested.
Source: Aljazeera
