A delegation of Japanese politicians has arrived in Beijing this week, signaling a potential effort to mend diplomatic relations amid one of the most severe rifts between the two nations since the 1970s. The group includes Gaku Hashimoto, a member of the House of Representatives and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), alongside representatives from various other parties.
The current diplomatic crisis traces back to November of last year, when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, potentially justifying the use of force. Beijing reacted sharply to these remarks. The following day, Xue Jian, China’s consul general in Osaka, posted a message on X stating, “We have no choice but cut off that dirty neck that has been lunged at us without hesitation.”
Tokyo responded by lodging a formal protest and requesting disciplinary action against the diplomat, but Beijing refused. Instead, China implemented travel warnings for its citizens and imposed new trade restrictions. By January, these tensions escalated further, and in February, China’s Ministry of Commerce placed 40 Japanese entities under restrictive measures regarding dual-use goods, while also establishing a “watch list” of companies.
The historical context of these tensions is deeply rooted in the late 19th century. Japan seized Taiwan from China in 1895 following the First Sino-Japanese War. Later, in 1931, Japan occupied Manchuria and initiated a full-scale invasion of China six years later, resulting in millions of deaths. Following Japan’s surrender in 1945, the Republic of China (ROC) assumed control of Taiwan, but after the ROC government relocated to Taipei in 1949 following the Chinese Civil War, the island has remained separated from the mainland. Although the People’s Republic of China has never governed Taiwan, it continues to claim the island as its territory.
Diplomatic relations were normalized in 1972 with the signing of the Joint Communique, which saw Japan end official ties with the ROC. However, analysts suggest that Beijing now views any Japanese rhetoric regarding military force as a resurgence of wartime militarism. Shinichi Isa, a politician with experience at the Japanese embassy in China, noted that bilateral communication has effectively collapsed, stating, “Now all channels between officials and ministries have been cut off.”
The economic impact of this rift has been significant. Beijing imposed a ban on Japanese seafood last November, and Chinese tourism to Japan dropped from 715,700 arrivals in October 2025 to 330,000 by December. While a weak yen has helped mitigate the overall economic damage by attracting other international tourists, the disruption of supply chains is more concerning. China, which provides approximately 80 percent of Japan’s rare earth imports, halted shipments of dysprosium and terbium oxide between November 2025 and May 2026, causing supply issues for manufacturers like Nissan and Suzuki.
Despite the tensions, some experts see the current visit as a “modest start” to restoring dialogue. Masahiro Matsumura, a professor at St Andrew’s University, noted that while Beijing is using a “selective approach”—such as maintaining openness to Japanese direct investment and avoiding strict controls on yen-based financial outflows—the situation remains complex. He cautioned that the visiting lawmakers do not necessarily reflect the official policy of the Takaichi administration, noting internal divisions within the LDP between pro-US and pro-China factions.
The broader geopolitical landscape also plays a role, as concerns grow regarding the reliability of the United States as an ally. William Yang, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, observed that US military redeployments away from the region have weakened its ability to project power and counter Chinese influence in Asia. As the situation evolves, Beijing has urged the Japanese government to take the current diplomatic efforts seriously, though observers remain skeptical about the likelihood of any substantial near-term breakthroughs. The report also notes that this year, China ramped up tensions further, restricting exports of dual-use goods and rare earth materials which are necessary for building many high-tech products from smartphones to fighter jets. The report also notes that dual-use goods include software and technology with potential military or weapons-development applications. The report also notes that risk assessment reports and written commitments that items will not be used for military or defensive capabilities, it issued a separate “watch list” of 20 companies for which Chinese exporters must submit individual licence applications. The report also notes that a politician who has previously served at the Japanese embassy in China, bilateral ties have sunk to their lowest since the 1972 normalisation of relations, according to Shinichi Isa. The report also notes that dylan Loh, an associate professor in the Public Policy and Global Affairs programme at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said that bilateral relations “have dropped to their lowest in recent memory; communications have ground to a halt, and there is even more mistrust at both the elite and people-to-people level”. The report also notes that can Japan afford to fall out with China.
Source: Al Jazeera
