Tensions between Tel Aviv and Ankara have reached a critical point following an Israeli aerial strike on the Abu al-Duhur Military Airbase in Syria’s Idlib province. While the attack caused no casualties, it destroyed the base’s runway and storage facilities. The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the operation by claiming it prevented Syria from allowing Turkish forces to deploy at the site, which Israel argued would violate the existing security status quo.
Netanyahu further warned Ankara against any military buildup that “descends south because it threatens us.” This rhetoric has drawn sharp criticism from both domestic opponents and international observers. The United States, through its envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, condemned the strikes as an “unnecessary escalation” that undermines regional stability. Türkiye also issued a strong condemnation, accusing Israel of targeting Syrian infrastructure and violating the nation’s territorial integrity, while urging the international community to take a firm stance against such aggression.
Political analysts and former Israeli officials suggest these actions are a calculated maneuver by Netanyahu to secure his political future. With national elections scheduled for October, the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history is currently struggling with poor polling numbers. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak labeled the move “reckless and stupid,” characterizing it as a deliberate attempt to manufacture security anxieties to sway voters. Opposition leader Yair Golan echoed these sentiments, calling the strike a “provocative and dangerous” use of military force for personal political gain.
Gokhan Batu, a Levant studies analyst at the Ankara-based Centre for Middle Eastern Studies, notes that the attack represents an “open challenge to Türkiye’s influence.” He argues that Israel is increasingly isolated as Washington shows reluctance to remain the region’s sole security provider. The timing of the strike is particularly notable, occurring shortly after the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement—a pact involving Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. According to Batu, Israel intends to signal that this new regional alliance will not deter its military operations.
The geopolitical landscape has shifted significantly since the December 2024 revolution that toppled the Assad regime. Israel, uncomfortable with the new political order in Syria, has struggled to justify its continued interventions. Batu explains that Israel’s previous pretext of protecting minorities has lost credibility as northern Syria has stabilized and integrated diverse ethnic groups into its governance and military structures. Consequently, Tel Aviv is now attempting to portray the new government’s close ties with Türkiye as a security threat to justify further destabilization.
Türkiye’s growing military-industrial capabilities are also complicating Israel’s strategic calculations. Ankara has established itself as a global leader in drone technology, utilizing platforms like the Bayraktar TB2, the Bayraktar Kizilelma, and the ANKA III. With the indigenous fifth-generation KAAN fighter jet expected to enter service starting in 2029, Türkiye is positioning itself to become a dominant regional air power. Batu warns that this shift presents a reality Israel has not previously encountered.
While experts like Batu do not anticipate a full-scale security clash between the two nations, they note that Israel is actively strengthening alliances with Greece and Greek-administered Cyprus to counter Ankara. For now, Türkiye has maintained a policy of restraint, but analysts caution that continued Israeli aggression may eventually force a shift in that posture. As the October election approaches, the political exploitation of these tensions remains a central theme in Israeli domestic discourse, with critics continuing to label the strategy as both unreliable and extremist. The report also notes that a NATO member, that possesses military capabilities far superior to those of the rest of regional actors, analysts say, israel’s rhetoric and actions risk broader confrontation with Ankara. The report also notes that analysts say Netanyahu’s multiple wars across the region are part of a well-thought-out plan to bolster his chances of winning the forthcoming national elections that he is widely expected to lose. The report also notes that “It strongly reeks of a political motive to go into elections with a string of security tensions that would fuel public anxiety,” Barak was quoted as saying. The report also notes that in northern Syria, Türkiye has carried out a series of successful anti-terror operations since 2016 to prevent the establishment of a terror corridor and ensure the peaceful settlement of residents.. The report also notes that the situation in Syria has developed “in a direction very different” from what Israel envisaged, Batu says, since the December 2024 revolution that toppled the dictatorial Assad regime. The report also notes that israel’s initial response challenged the legitimacy of the new government and fuelled instability. The report also notes that together with US efforts to limit Israeli action, is pushing Israel to find new justifications for intervention, he adds, washington’s rapprochement with Damascus. The report also notes that following the fall of the Baathist regime, Israel does not want a political and security order with much stronger popular support than its predecessor to consolidate on its northern frontier, Batu says.
Source: TRT World
